Navigating the tariffs' situation in the U.S. for CPG firms: a strategic and practical introductory guide

by the wave momentum, a  Triana Group member - Globallians Global networks

in partnership with Carolyn Amadon / HTP

September 2025

INTRODUCTION

Recent U.S. tariff revisions — including the repeal of the long-standing de minimis exemption and the introduction of new reciprocal and sector-specific tariffs — combined with a slowdown in consumer demand, have left many companies in the CPG sector questioning their American market strategy. Some are even tempted to shift focus toward higher-growth regions such as Asia or the UAE. 

Yet despite these headwinds, the United States remains the largest and most influential consumer market in the world. Exiting or deprioritizing it in response to short-term challenges can lead to lasting strategic losses. There are practical ways to adapt, protect margins, and even gain ground. 

In this article, The Wave Momentum, in partnership with Carolyn Amadon — an expert in International Trade Law & Tariff Compliance — offers a quick analysis of the current landscape and how companies can best navigate these uncertain times.

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

The key realities: the glass half full / half empty

• U.S. slower growth, but still ahead of Europe: Real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is expected to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to ~1.5–1.9% in 2025–26 — still outpacing the EU’s projected 0.9–1.5% GDP growth.

• Global context: Other regions such as Asia or the UAE may post higher percentage growth, but the U.S. uniquely combines high absolute consumption, purchasing power, market accessibility, and global trend-setting influence.

• Resilient demand patterns: While low-income households are trading down, high-income consumers (>$100K) continue to spend — and often spend more — in premium and experiential categories. 

The U.S. remains strategically irreplaceable

Short-term turbulence should not dictate long-term market strategy. The U.S. continues to offer:

• Scale across all price points — From essentials to luxury, even niche segments can represent significant revenue pools.

• Cultural & trend leadership — U.S. consumer behavior often shapes demand worldwide.

• Market access & infrastructure — A mature retail and e-commerce ecosystem allows for rapid scaling.

Pricing strategy amid tariffs and inflation

The strongest performers focus on positioning and value perception, not just cost recovery:

• Premium brands maintain pricing power through clear, differentiated value propositions.

• Value brands adapt formats and pack sizes to protect margins.

• Category leaders use loyalty and brand equity as buffers against shocks.

But positioning alone is not enough. With tariffs no longer a peripheral factor but a central component of business strategy, companies must incorporate proactive tariff management into their U.S. plans.

PRACTICAL GUIDANCE ON TARIFFS

From low averages to high volatility

Prior to 2025, historic tariff rates averaged around 2% for most imports into the U.S. That is no longer the case. As of mid-2025, tariffs now range from 10% to 50%, depending on country of origin and product category. CPG firms must treat tariffs not as a “cost of doing business” but as a strategic variable in supply chain, cost, and pricing structures.

Major 2025 tariff developments

1. End of the “De Minimis” Exemption

• Effective August 29, 2025, the U.S. permanently ended the duty-free threshold

  for imports valued under $800.

• Initially aimed at China and Hong Kong, this policy now applies universally.

• For e-commerce and small parcel imports, the shift is seismic: all shipments,

  regardless of value, are now subject to duties and full customs declarations.

• Implication: Cross-border fulfillment models must be re-engineered, with higher

  costs and greater paperwork for both brands and logistics providers.

2. Expanded Tariff Framework & Sectoral Measures

• A universal 10% reciprocal tariff applies to most goods, with country-specific surcharges between 11% and 50% (e.g., ~15% for EU, ~35% for Canada, ~50% for Brazil).

• Sector-specific increases include a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum (affecting cans, appliances, and packaging) and new 50% duties on copper-intensive goods.

• For CPG companies, this extends tariff exposure beyond finished goods into packaging, bottling, and input materials.

  
  

3. Transshipment Penalty Tariffs

• To combat “tariff evasion,” U.S. Customs now imposes a flat 40% penalty tariff on goods determined to be “transshipped” — routed through third countries to mask origin.

• While the legal definition of transshipment remains vague, enforcement relies on “substantial transformation” rules.

• Implication: Companies must invest in strong origin documentation and supply chain audits to avoid being penalized.

How companies should respond

● Create compliance structures: Build in-house or partner with trade counsel to

react quickly to tariff and sanctions changes.

● Conduct supply chain audits: Map exposure by product category, origin, and

input material.

● Mitigate risks proactively: Review HS classification, valuation methods,

country-of-origin certification, and exemption qualifications.

● Reengineer fulfillment models: For digital commerce, adapt to the loss of de

minimis and plan for higher operational costs.

● Scenario plan by sourcing region: Adjust for partner-specific rates (e.g., 15% EU

vs. 35% Canada vs. 50% Brazil).

CONCLUSION

The U.S. market has become significantly more complex in 2025. Tariffs are no longer peripheral — they are now central to cost, compliance, and competitive strategy.

Still, the long-term fundamentals — unmatched scale, purchasing power, and global influence — make the U.S. strategically irreplaceable, even when short-term indicators turn negative. History shows the rewards of staying committed:

• 2008–2011 Luxury Rebound: Hermès and Louis Vuitton expanded during the downturn, gaining prime market share.

• 1970s Oil Shocks: Toyota and Honda adapted to market needs and secured lasting dominance.

• Post-COVID CPG Recovery: Brands that maintained visibility and partnerships rebounded faster than those who withdrew.

With the right blend of strategic perseverance and practical readiness, the U.S. market remains one of the most powerful growth platforms for globally minded brands. But commitment without preparation is risky.

The Wave Momentum, in association with Carolyn Amadon, can help companies actively manage tariff pressures, maintain margin discipline, and protect or develop their market position.

YOUR NEXT STEP

⇾ Contact us to book a free 45-minute U.S. Resilience Consultation . We will explore your brand’s exposure, market opportunities, and readiness to navigate the current environment.

CONTACT: Sylvie Giret - sylvie@thewavemomentum.com

ABOUT US

the wave momentum (aka wave)

wave is a strategic advisory firm based in New York and Chicago, dedicated to  supporting international companies in their expansion across the North American  market. Founded in 2016, wave specializes in market entry, business development,  go-to-market strategies, and operational scaling. The firm combines senior-level  expertise with a pragmatic, results-driven approach tailored to each client’s context and  maturity. wave operates as an integrated extension of its clients’ leadership teams,  providing both strategic guidance and hands-on execution. Its methodology emphasizes  phased, actionable engagement to generate early wins while building sustainable  growth trajectories. wave advises a broad portfolio of clients, ranging from startups and  scale-ups to mid-cap industrial firms and global corporations. Core sectors include B2B  software, AI, industrial technologies, manufacturing, and consumer goods. The firm  upholds a clear set of values—integrity, competence, collaboration, and intellectual  rigor—as the foundation of every engagement. More than a consultancy, wave is a  trusted growth partner for organizations navigating complex international expansion.

wave is a  Triana Group member - Globallians Global networks

HTP

HTP leverages over 20 years’ experience across international trade compliance. HTP  has counseled companies in multiple industries to achieve best-in-class compliance  while maintaining business-friendly results. Services include audits, supply chain  reviews, HS classification, valuation, origin determination, and customs strategy, helping  clients build proactive systems that turn tariff risk management into a strategic  advantage.  As Principal, Carolyn Amadon founded HTP on the premise that companies of all sizes  should view international trade compliance as a mission-critical function. Clients benefit  from her dual experience as external counsel and in-house compliance leader, along  with her role as adjunct professor of international trade and U.S. Customs law.